WINS50: The impact of large-scale wind energy on the atmosphere

As part of the energy transition, the installed capacity of offshore wind energy in the Dutch part of the North Sea will grow explosively in the next decades. Scenarios with up to 60 GW of offshore wind in 2050 are being examined by various research institutes and by the Dutch government (1, 2, 3, 4). To date, it is highly uncertain how such a large-scale roll-out of wind energy will impact on the atmosphere and vice versa. A better understanding of these interactions is vital for the wind energy sector and policy makers.

The WINS50 project aimed to reduce uncertainties between a large-scale roll-out of offshore wind energy in the North Sea and the atmosphere.

The activities and results of the project are extensively described in (5).

Update: WINS50 data available

• WINS50 data from Whiffle's large-eddy simulation model ASPIRE have been made publicly available. The data include one year of model output for a scenario with present-day offshore energy capacity, as well as for a hypothetical 2050 capacity scenario. The ASPIRE datasets allow for detailed analysis of the anticipated explosive growth of offshore wind energy in the North Sea. See the Data Section of this website for futher information.
• Datasets with WINS50 model output from the HARMONIE-AROME weather model are available. For the years 2019, 2020, and 2021 datasets from two simulations are available: one without wind farms and one including the effects of operational wind farms. Also, one year of modeling results including the effects of a hypothetical 2050 offshore capacity scenario are available (using the weather conditions from 2020). Details on the different datasets and information how to obtain the data are provided in the Data Section of this website.
• To facilitate the accessibility of the datasets the WINS50 Image Library has been set-up. Explore how a tenfold increase in the North Sea wind energy capacity impacts on wind, temperature, and humidity fields!

Animation taken from the ASPIRE 2050 simulation. The left panel shows the evolution of the cloud field, the right panel shows the wind speed. Clear wake effects are visible.Video: Whiffle.

WINS50 Project Objectives

• Provide the wind energy sector, policy makers, and the research community with the most up-to-date wind atlas up to 600m height that incorporates the impact of both existing and future (2050) wind farms.
• Develop a high-resolution (100m), turbine-resolving weather model for making operational forecasts and wind resource assessments for the entire Dutch North Sea.
• Increase the understanding of the impact of present and future North Sea wind farms on the atmosphere.
• Provide decision making support for policy makers and wind energy providers (e.g. by doing sensitivity studies with different power densities in offshore wind farms).
• Provide datasets for additional integration studies such as for energy storage needs, electricity network planning and ecological studies.

WINS50 Activities

The HARMONIE weather model, operated by KNMI, has been run for 2019-2021 to produce winds undisturbed by wake effects (extension of the recently published Dutch Offshore Wind Atlas (DOWA)). The same three years have been simulated with the installed wind power capacity in Europe (both offshore and onshore) on the 1st of January of that year. Moreover, a one-year simulation with a hypothetical 2050 wind energy scenario was performed.

The computational capabilities of Whiffle's high-resolution turbine-resolving weather model ASPIRE have been extended to allow for simulations for the entire Dutch North Sea. With this newly developed model, a present-day and a future capacity scenario have been simulated with unprecedented detail.

Data produced with HARMONIE and ASPIRE have been made available. The impact of a large-scale rollout of the offshore energy capacity on the atmosphere and the associated power production has been studied. With separate modeling studies the impact of, for instance, applied turbine type, and installed capacity density, have been investigated.

Background information on the two weather models, HARMONIE and ASPIRE, is provided in the Research Section.

Image Library

To facilitate the accessibility of the dataset, an Image Library of preprocessed figures has been developed. This collection of plots allows for browsing through instantaneous snapshots of the wind field. Moreover, Figures are available that indicate the impact of atmospheric stability on the wind farm wakes and the frequency of occurrence of specified velocity deficits. Two exampes from the Image Library are shown below. The area shown in the Figures illustrates the spatial extent of the publicly available datasets.

Two examples from the WINS50 Image Library. Left: snapshot of the 100-m wind speed from the simulation without wind farms. Right: mean 100-m wind speed difference between the simulation with the hypothetical 2050 capacity scenario and the simulation without wind farms for southeasterly winds (30 degrees wide range around 135 degrees).
Image: WINS50.

WINS50 Research

Currently, many research questions are high on the agenda of the wind energy sector including for instance

• Validation
• Impact future capacity scenario on wind climate
• The 2050 scenario and energy production
• Sensitivity studies

Presently, there are no wind atlases that include the effects of a large upscaling of the wind energy capacity in the North Sea. At the same time, the uncertainty of the impact of future wind farms on weather and climate is large.

WINS50 Deliverables

Within WINS50, the following results were made publicly available:

• HARMONIE data without wake effects (extension of the DOWA data) for 3 years 2019-2021.
• HARMONIE data with wake effects for 2019-2021, i.e. from a simulation that includes the wind farms operational on the 1st of January of that year.
• HARMONIE data with wake effects for a single year, but with a hypothetical 2050 offshore wind energy capacity scenario.
• One year of ASPIRE LES (~100m resolution) data for the entire North Sea 1) with the 2020 capacity and 2) with a 2050 capacity scenario.
• Sensitivity studies with HARMONIE and GRASP, targeted to answer specific research questions.
• Wind power production time series per wind farm zone. These will facilitate other research that targets the integration of wind energy in the electricity and/or energy system.

About the project

WINS50 was jointly executed by Whiffle, TU Delft and KNMI and was supported by subsidy from Topconsortia for Knowledge and Innovation (TKI) Wind op Zee. The project started at 1 January 2020 and ended 31 December 2023.

Contact Project Coordinator

Peter Baas
Whiffle
E-mail:

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1. J Matthijsen, E Dammers, H Elzenga (2018): The Future of the North Sea. The North Sea in 2030 and 2050: a scenario study. PBL publication number: 3193.
2. Kamerbrief Routekaart Windenergie op Zee 2030 (2018).
3. Ontwerp Programma Noordzee 2022 - 2027 (2021).
4. LA van Duren, F Zijl, T van Kessel, VTM van Zeist, LM Vilmin, J van der Meer, GM Aarts, J van der Molen, K Soetaert, and AW Minns (2021): Ecosystem effects of large upscaling of offshrore wind on the North Sea - Synthesis report. Deltares rapport 11203731-004-ZKS-0010.
5. P Baas (2024): Winds of the North Sea in 2050 - Public Final Report, WINS50 Report.